Abanyarwanda benshi bakomeje kwibaza niba ibiciro byazamutse mu minsi ishize, cyane cyane iby’ibikomoka kuri peteroli n’ibindi bicuruzwa by’ibanze, bishobora kongera kugabanuka nyuma y’amasezerano y’ibanze yashyizweho umukono hagati ya Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika na Iran ku wa 17 Kamena 2026.
Aya masezerano aje nyuma y’igihe cy’imirwano n’umwuka mubi byari byarafashe intera hagati y’ibihugu byombi, ibintu byagize ingaruka zikomeye ku bukungu bw’Isi ndetse no ku bucuruzi mpuzamahanga.
Kimwe mu byari byateje impungenge kurusha ibindi ni ifungwa cyangwa ihungabanywa ry’inzira ya Hormuz, inzira inyuramo igice kinini cy’ibikomoka kuri peteroli n’ibicuruzwa biva cyangwa bijya mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati.
Hormuz inyuramo hafi 20% bya peteroli ikoreshwa ku Isi buri munsi. Iyo nzira kandi inyuramo ibicuruzwa byinshi byoherezwa ku masoko mpuzamahanga. Kuba yari yarahungabanye byatumye ibiciro bya peteroli bizamuka ku rwego rutari rwarigeze rubaho muri uyu mwaka.
Mu gihe imirwano yari ikomeje gukaza umurego, akagunguru ka peteroli idatunganyije kageze ku madolari 120, ibintu byahise bigira ingaruka ku bihugu byinshi bitumiza ibikomoka kuri peteroli birimo n’u Rwanda.
Nyuma y’isinywa ry’aya masezerano ariko, ibiciro byahise bisubira hasi, aho akagunguru ka peteroli kageze kuri 77,69$, mu gihe peteroli yo muri Amerika yageze kuri 74,90$ ku kagunguru.
Mu ngingo 14 zigize aya masezerano azamara iminsi 60 mbere y’amasezerano ya nyuma, harimo guhagarika ibitero impande zombi zagabaga mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati, kubaha ubusugire bwa buri gihugu, kongera gufungura inzira ya Hormuz, gufungura ibyambu bya Iran ndetse no koroshya urujya n’uruza rw’ubucuruzi.
Iran yemeye kudakomeza gahunda zijyanye no gutunganya intwaro za nucléaire, mu gihe Amerika yemeye koroshya ibihano yari yarafatiye Iran, gukomorera amafaranga yayo yari yarafatiwe muri za banki no gutanga miliyari 300 z’amadolari yo gusana ibikorwa byangijwe n’intambara.
Perezida Donald Trump yashyize umukono kuri aya masezerano ari mu Bufaransa aho yari yitabiriye inama y’ibihugu bikize ya G7, mu gihe Perezida wa Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, na we yayemeje ku mugaragaro ku wa 17 Kamena.
Nubwo aya makuru yakiriwe neza ku masoko mpuzamahanga, ubuyobozi bw’u Rwanda buracyagaragaza ubushishozi mu kuyasesengura mbere yo kwemeza ko azahita agira ingaruka nziza ku biciro byo mu gihugu.
Minisitiri w’Imari n’Igenamigambi, Yusuf Murangwa, ubwo yavuganaga n’abanyamakuru ku wa 16 Kamena, yavuze ko hakenewe igihe cyo kureba niba ayo masezerano azubahirizwa kandi akamara igihe gihagije kugira ngo habeho impinduka zifatika.
Yagize ati: “Twabonye amakuru meza ko hari amasezerano y’ibanze ku ntambara iri mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati ariko ihame ryacu ni ugutegereza tukabanza tukareba. Kubera ibintu bibiri, icya mbere ni ukubanza kureba niba bishyirwa mu bikorwa kandi bikamara igihe kirekire.”
Yongeyeho ko n’iyo ibintu byose byasubira ku murongo ako kanya, hakiri byinshi byo gukemura mu rwego rw’ubucuruzi mpuzamahanga no gukuraho ibibazo byatewe n’ihungabana ryabaye mu Kigobe cya Persique.
Murangwa yagize ati: “N’iyo ibintu byose byajya ku murongo uyu munsi haba hakiri byinshi byo gukemura. Rero turacyateganya ko tuzakomeza kubona ingaruka z’ikibazo cyabayeho, kugeza igihe tuzabonera neza ibiri kuba ku ruhando mpuzamahanga mu bijyanye n’ubucuruzi, uko abacuruzi mpuzamahanga bazashobora gukura ibintu byaheze mu kigobe cya Persique.”
Mu Rwanda, izamuka ry’ibiciro bya peteroli ryagaragaye cyane ku wa 5 Kamena 2026, ubwo hatangazwaga ibiciro bishya byagejeje litiro ya lisansi kuri 2.938 Frw na mazutu kuri 2.927 Frw. Byari ubwa mbere ibiciro by’ibikomoka kuri peteroli bigeze kuri urwo rwego mu mateka y’Igihugu.
Ku wa 6 Kamena, Minisitiri w’Intebe Dr Justin Nsengiyumva yavuze ko Leta yafashe icyemezo cyo gutanga nkunganire kugira ngo ibiciro bitazamuka kurushaho.
Yavuze ko iyo iyo nkunganire itabaho, litiro ya mazutu yari kugera kuri 3.581 Frw, bivuze ko Leta yashyizeho nkunganire ingana na 18,16%.
Nubwo ibiciro bya peteroli ku rwego mpuzamahanga byatangiye kugabanuka, impuguke zigaragaza ko bishobora gufata igihe mbere y’uko ingaruka nziza zigera ku muguzi wo mu Rwanda. Impamvu ni uko hari ibicuruzwa byinshi byaranguwe ku biciro byo hejuru bikiri mu nzira cyangwa biri mu bubiko.
Ubwato buturutse ku byambu bya Dubai cyangwa Bandar Abbas bukenera hagati y’iminsi itandatu na 12 kugira ngo bugere ku byambu bya Mombasa cyangwa Dar es Salaam. Iyo hiyongereyeho urugendo rwo kubigeza mu Rwanda, bisobanura ko ibicuruzwa byinshi byaguzwe mu gihe cy’ibibazo bitaragera ku masoko cyangwa bikiri mu bubiko.
Aya masezerano kandi ateganya ko ibikorwa byose bishobora kubangamira urujya n’uruza rw’amato muri Hormuz, birimo no gukuraho ibisasu bya mine byaba byaratezwe mu mazi, bizakorwa nibura mu minsi 30 iri imbere. Muri icyo gihe kandi Amerika izaba ikura ingabo n’ubwato bw’intambara yari yarohereje muri ako karere.
Iran yiyemeje ko urujya n’uruza rw’amato y’ubucuruzi ruzongera kugera ku rwego rwariho mbere y’intambara, ibintu bishobora gufasha mu gusubiza ituze ku masoko mpuzamahanga.
U Rwanda rwatangaje ko rwari rwarabitse peteroli ihagije mbere y’uko intambara itangira kandi ko rutigeze rukoresha ibyo rwizigamye. Leta kandi yemeza ko izakomeza gukora ibishoboka byose kugira ngo ibikomoka kuri peteroli n’ibindi bicuruzwa by’ingenzi bidahura n’ibura ku isoko.
Mu gihe abaturage bategereje kureba niba ibiciro bizagabanuka mu mezi ari imbere, imibare y’Ikigo cy’Igihugu cy’Ibarurishamibare igaragaza ko muri Gicurasi 2026, ibiciro ku masoko byari byazamutseho 12,9% ugereranyije na Gicurasi 2025.
Ibi bivuze ko nubwo amasezerano ya Amerika na Iran atanga icyizere ku bukungu bw’Isi, inzira yo kugera ku kugabanya ibiciro mu Rwanda ishobora gusaba igihe mbere y’uko abaturage babibona mu buzima bwa buri munsi.
Tubibutse ko mushobora gukomeza kudukurikirana ku mbuga nkoranyambaga.
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