Imirwano imaze imyaka myinshi mu burasirazuba bwa Repubulika Iharanira Demokarasi ya Congo ikomeje gufata indi sura, aho ubutegetsi bwa Kinshasa busa n’ubwinjiye mu cyiciro gishya cy’urugamba rutarangwa gusa no gushaka gutsinda ibitero by’ako kanya, ahubwo rugamije kunaniza uwo bahanganye kugeza igihe atakaje ubushobozi bwo gukomeza urugamba.
Aya mayeri azwi nka “intambara yo kunaniza cyangwa war of attrition” ni imwe mu nzira nshya zigaragara mu mikorere ya Leta ya Congo mu guhangana n’ihuriro rya AFC/M23 riyobowe na Corneille Nangaa mu rwego rwa politiki na Gen. Sultani Makenga ku ruhande rwa gisirikare.
Mu gihe intambara zisanzwe ziba zigamije kwigarurira ubutaka cyangwa gutsinsura umwanzi mu rugamba rumwe rukomeye, intambara yo kunaniza yo iba ifite intego yo gutuma umwanzi agenda atakaza ubushobozi buhoro buhoro kugeza igihe ibikorwa bye byose bihagaze.
Abasesenguzi bavuga ko Kinshasa isa n’iyemera ko gutsinda AFC/M23 mu buryo bwa gisirikare gusa bishobora kuba bitari byoroshye. Ibyo byatumye ihitamo uburyo bwo kuyishyira mu ntambara ihoraho, igahora ihanganye n’ibitero, ibura igihe cyo kwisuganya no kubaka imbaraga nshya.
Leta ya Congo kandi ikomeje kuvuga ko AFC/M23 ifashwa n’u Rwanda, ibirego Kigali yakomeje guhakana inshuro nyinshi. Ku ruhande rwa Kinshasa, gukomeza igitutu cya gisirikare no kongera igihe cy’urugamba bishobora gutuma abafatwa nk’abafasha AFC/M23 basabwa gukoresha amikoro menshi kurushaho, ibintu abategura aya mayeri babona nk’inzira yo kugabanya ubushobozi bw’uwo bahanganye mu gihe kirekire.
Mu gushyira mu bikorwa iyo gahunda, FARDC ntiyishingikiriza gusa ku ngabo zayo. Yubatse ubufatanye n’ingabo z’u Burundi ndetse n’ibihugu byo mu muryango wa SADC, cyane cyane abasirikare bo muri Afurika y’Epfo. Izo mbaraga z’amahanga zongereye ubushobozi bwa Congo bwo gukomeza urugamba nubwo ibice byinshi by’ingenzi bikomeje kugenzurwa na AFC/M23.
Ikindi Kinshasa yashyize imbere ni ugukoresha imitwe yitwaje intwaro y’imbere mu gihugu ihurizwa mu izina rya Wazalendo. Iyo mitwe ikora ibitero bito bito kandi bihoraho ku birindiro n’imihanda ikoreshwa na AFC/M23. Intego si ugufata imijyi minini gusa, ahubwo ni ugutuma abarwanyi ba AFC/M23 bahora bari maso, bakoresha amasasu, lisansi n’ibindi bikoresho byinshi kurushaho.
Mu myaka ya vuba kandi, intambara yo mu burasirazuba bwa Congo yatangiye kurangwa n’ikoranabuhanga rigezweho. FARDC yakajije umurego mu gukoresha drones n’ibitero by’indege ku birindiro by’abo bahanganye.
Hari amakuru yagiye agaragaza ko bamwe mu bayobozi bakomeye ba AFC/M23 bagabweho ibitero by’indege zitagira abapilote, mu rwego rw’icyo abahanga mu bya gisirikare bita “guca umutwe ubuyobozi bw’umwanzi”.
Ariko nubwo aya mayeri agaragara nk’afite imbaraga ku mpapuro, hari ibimenyetso byinshi byerekana ko atarimo gutanga umusaruro uhambaye nk’uwo bamwe bari biteze.
Kimwe mu bibazo bikomeye FARDC ihanganye na byo ni ubushobozi bwa AFC/M23 bwo kwisuganya nyuma y’ibihombo. Nubwo bamwe mu bayobozi bayo bagiye bicwa cyangwa bagakurwa ku rugamba, uyu mutwe wakomeje kwerekana ubushobozi bwo gusimbuza abayobozi no gukomeza ibikorwa byawo bitagize ihungabana rikomeye.
Ikindi ni uko AFC/M23 itakiri umutwe urwana wonyine. Mu gihe cyashize M23 yaguriye ibikorwa byayo mu ihuriro rya AFC ririmo abanyapolitiki, abasirikare bahoze muri FARDC, bamwe mu bahoze mu mitwe ya Mai-Mai n’andi matsinda atandukanye atavuga rumwe n’ubutegetsi bwa Kinshasa. Ibi byatumye urwo rugaga rwaguka haba mu mubare w’abarugize no mu bushobozi bwo gukorera hamwe.
Hari kandi impinduka zigaragara mu ntambara y’ikoranabuhanga. Mu gihe FARDC yashoye imari mu kugura drones, amakuru atandukanye ku rugamba yerekana ko AFC/M23 na yo yongereye ubushobozi bwayo muri urwo rwego. Ibi byatumye intambara yo mu kirere itakiri iy’uruhande rumwe gusa, ahubwo iba irushanwa hagati y’impande zombi.
Abasesenguzi bamwe bavuga ko gukoresha Wazalendo n’indi mitwe yitwaje intwaro bishobora guha FARDC inyungu z’igihe gito ariko bikagira ingaruka z’igihe kirekire. Impamvu ni uko iyo mitwe ikunze gushinjwa ibikorwa byo guhungabanya abaturage, ibintu bishobora gutuma bamwe mu batuye ibice biberamo iyi ntambara batakariza icyizere ubutegetsi bwa Kinshasa.
Ahandi AFC/M23 ikomeje gukura imbaraga ni mu mikorere y’ubutegetsi yashyizeho mu bice igenzura. Mu mijyi nka Goma na Bukavu ndetse no ku mipaka ikomeye nk’uwa Bunagana, iri huriro ryubatse uburyo bwo gukusanya imisoro no kugenzura ubucuruzi. Abasesenguzi bavuga ko ayo mafaranga afasha gukomeza ibikorwa byaryo ndetse akarigabanyiriza kwishingikiriza ku nkunga zo hanze.
Mu gihe ku rugamba hakomeje kuboneka ibikorwa bya gisirikare, ku ruhande rwa dipolomasi na ho hari indi ntambara itagaragara cyane ariko ifite akamaro gakomeye. Ibiganiro byabereye i Doha muri Qatar n’ibiganiro byashyigikiwe na Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika byahaye icyizere bamwe ko hashobora kuboneka umuti wa politiki.
Perezida Félix Tshisekedi n’abayobozi ba AFC/M23 barimo Bertrand Bisimwa bagiye bagaragaza mu bihe bitandukanye ko amahoro ari yo nzira irambye. Nyamara nubwo ayo magambo akomeza kumvikana, imirwano iracyakomeza mu bice bitandukanye bya Kivu y’Amajyaruguru n’iy’Amajyepfo.
Ibyo bituma ikibazo gikomeza kuba kimwe: Ese intambara yo kunaniza ishobora guhindura isura y’urugamba?
Kugeza ubu, ibimenyetso byinshi byerekana ko ishobora gufasha FARDC kutemera gutsindwa no gukomeza gushyira igitutu ku wo bahanganye. Ariko kandi ntibiragaragara ko ishobora gutuma AFC/M23 itsindwa burundu cyangwa ive mu bice igenzura mu gihe cya vuba.
Niba nta gisubizo cya politiki kibonetse, bishoboka ko iyi ntambara yo kunaniza izahinduka intambara y’igihe kirekire, aho impande zombi zikomeza kurwana nta na rumwe rushoboye gutsinda urundi burundu.
Abazahomba kurushaho muri iyo gahunda bazakomeza kuba abaturage basanzwe bo mu burasirazuba bwa Congo, bakomeje guhura n’ubwicanyi, ubuhunzi, inzara n’ihungabana ryatewe n’intambara imaze imyaka myinshi idashira.
Tubibutse ko mushobora gukomeza kudukurikirana ku mbuga nkoranyambaga.
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