Intambara iri hagati ya Iran ku ruhande rumwe na Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika na Israel ku rundi ruhande ikomeje gufata indi ntera, aho impande zombi zikomeje kugerageza uburyo bushya bwo gutsinda cyangwa kugabanya imbaraga z’uwo bahanganye.
Nubwo Perezida wa Amerika, Donald Trump, yakomeje gutangaza ko igihugu cye n’abo bafatanyije bamaze kugera ku ntsinzi mu bitero bagabye kuri Iran, ibikorwa byo kwihorera bya Tehran biracyakomeje, bikaba byanateje umutekano muke ku isoko mpuzamahanga ry’ingufu n’imari.
Iyi ntambara yatangiye gufata indi ntera nyuma y’uko ibitero bya Amerika na Israel byagabwe ku murwa mukuru wa Iran, Tehran, ku wa 28 Gashyantare, bikica Umuyobozi w’Ikirenga w’iki gihugu, Ali Khamenei, ndetse n’abandi bayobozi bakomeye mu nzego z’umutekano n’igisirikare.
Nyuma y’ibi bitero, Minisitiri w’Ububanyi n’Amahanga wa Iran, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, yatangaje ko Iran yize amasomo menshi ku ntambara Amerika yagiye itsindwa mu myaka irenga makumyabiri ishize mu bihugu biyegereye.
Yagize ati: “Tumaze imyaka irenga icumi twiga uko igisirikare cya Amerika cyatsinzwe mu bihugu biri mu burasirazuba no mu burengerazuba bwacu. Twafashe ayo masomo turi kuyashyira mu ngiro.”
Yanongeyeho ko n’ubwo Tehran yaba igabwaho ibitero bikomeye, bidashobora guhagarika ubushobozi bw’iki gihugu bwo gukomeza intambara.
Abasesenguzi bavuga ko Iran iri gukoresha cyane uburyo bw’intambara buzwi nka “asymmetric warfare”, cyangwa se intambara idasanzwe ikoreshwa n’igihugu gifite imbaraga nke ugereranyije n’uwo bahanganye.
Ubu buryo bushingiye ku gukoresha ingufu n’amayeri atari ay’igisirikare gisanzwe, harimo: Intambara yo gutungura umwanzi (guerrilla tactics), Ibitero by’ikoranabuhanga (cyberattacks), Gukoresha imitwe ifasha igihugu mu ntambara, Ibitero by’ibisasu bito ariko byinshi no Gusenya ibikorwa remezo by’ingenzi.
Intego y’ubu buryo ni ukwirinda guhura imbonankubone n’umwanzi ufite imbaraga nyinshi, ahubwo ugakoresha intege nke ze mu rwego rwa politiki, ubukungu cyangwa ibikoresho.
Impuguke mu by’umutekano, John Phillips, yavuze ko Iran idashobora guhangana mu buryo busanzwe na Amerika na Israel, ariko ko ifite ubushobozi bwo gukoresha aya mayeri kugira ngo itume intambara ibahenda cyane.
Intambara iri kuba irimo gutwara amafaranga menshi cyane ku mpande zombi, ariko by’umwihariko kuri Amerika na Israel.
Ibihugu byombi bikoresha misile n’indege zitagira abapilote zihenze cyane, ndetse n’uburyo bwo kurinda ikirere burimo Patriot na THAAD
Izi sisiteme zohereza misile zihenze cyane kugira ngo zisenye ibisasu cyangwa drones z’umwanzi.
Ku rundi ruhande, drone zikoreshwa na Iran zo mu bwoko bwa Shahed zishobora kugura hagati ya $20,000 na $35,000, mu gihe misile zoherezwa n’izi sisiteme zishobora kugura miliyoni z’amadolari imwe.
Bivugwa ko Amerika ishobora kuba iri gukoresha miliyari $1 kugeza kuri $2 ku munsi muri iyi ntambara.
Mu masaha 100 ya mbere gusa y’igitero cyiswe Operation Epic Fury, Amerika yakoresheje hafi miliyari $3.7 nk’uko byatangajwe n’ikigo cy’ubushakashatsi cya Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Iran irimo kohereza imiraba y’ibisasu bya ballistic missiles na drones byibasira Israel n’ibirindiro bya Amerika biri mu kigobe cya Perse.
Intego ni ukugabanya ibikoresho byo kwirinda by’umwanzi kugeza bishize cyangwa bikamuhenda cyane.
Iran yafashe icyemezo gikomeye cyo gufunga inzira y’inyanja ya Hormuz,umuhora unyuramo hafi 20% by’amavuta na gaz bicuruzwa ku isi.
Ibi byatumye igiciro cya peteroli ku isoko mpuzamahanga kirenga $100 ku kagunguru, bikongera impungenge z’uko hashobora kubaho ikibazo gikomeye cy’ingufu ku isi.
Iran yanagabye ibitero ku mato atwara peteroli mu mazi ya Iraq ndetse inatera drones ku bubiko bwa peteroli no ku bibuga by’indege.
Igisirikare cya Iran, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, cyanatangaje ko gishobora kwibasira amabanki n’ibigo by’imari bifitanye isano na Amerika cyangwa Israel mu bihugu byo mu kigobe.
Nyuma y’iri tangazo, amabanki arimo Citibank na HSBC mu gihugu cya Qatar yatangiye gufunga ibikorwa byayo by’agateganyo kubera impungenge z’umutekano.
Iran yanavuze ko ishobora kwibasira ibigo by’ikoranabuhanga bikomeye birimo: Google, Microsoft, IBM, Nvidia ndetse na Oracle Corporation
Iran ifite imbaraga z’imitwe iyishyigikira mu bihugu byinshi byo mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati, harimo: Hezbollah muri Lebanon, imitwe y’abashiya muri Iraq, imitwe muri Syria, Hamas na Palestinian Islamic Jihad muri Gaza ndetse n’Aba-Houthis muri Yemen
Iyi mitwe ishobora kugaba ibitero mu nyungu za Iran ku mpande nyinshi icyarimwe, bikagora Amerika na Israel mu guhangana nabyo.
Urugero ni uko Hezbollah yatangiye kohereza misile na drones mu majyaruguru ya Israel kuva ku wa 2 Werurwe mu rwego rwo gushyigikira Iran.
Iran yanashyizeho uburyo bw’ubwirinzi bugabanya ubuyobozi bw’igisirikare mu bice byinshi byigenga, aho kuba ubuyobozi buri ahantu hamwe bworoshye kwibasirwa.
Ubu buryo buzwi nka “mosaic defence system”, bwatangijwe cyane mu gihe cy’uwari umuyobozi w’ingabo za IRGC, Mohammad Ali Jafari.
Intego yabwo ni uko n’iyo igice kimwe cy’igisirikare cyaba cyangiritse, ibindi bishobora gukomeza intambara.
Abasesenguzi bavuga ko ku rugero runaka, aya mayeri yose ya Iran ari gutanga umusaruro.
Raporo y’ikigo The Soufan Center igaragaza ko Iran iri kurwana intambara y’igihe kirekire, aho ishaka gutuma intambara ihenda cyane abanzi bayo kurusha uko ihenda Iran.
Ibi byatangiye no guteza ibibazo bya politiki muri Amerika, aho umudepite ukuriye abatavuga rumwe n’ubutegetsi mu Nteko Ishinga Amategeko, Hakeem Jeffries, yanenze ubutegetsi bwa Trump.
Yagize ati: “Perezida Trump ari kujyana Amerika mu yindi ntambara ndende mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati, akoresha miliyari z’amadolari mu kurasa Iran, mu gihe abaturage b’Abanyamerika badashobora kubona amafaranga yo kwivuza cyangwa kugura inzu.”
No muri Israel, umunyapolitiki utavuga rumwe n’ubutegetsi, Yair Golan, yanenze uko guverinoma itateguye neza mu bijyanye n’ubukungu mu gihe cy’intambara.
Nubwo aya mayeri ashobora gutuma intambara ihenda cyane Amerika na Israel, impuguke zivuga ko Iran nayo ifite imbogamizi zikomeye zirimo ibihano mpuzamahanga bikomeje kuyibuza ubushobozi bw’ubukungu, igihombo cy’abayobozi n’ibikoresho mu mitwe iyishyigikira, ibyago byo gukaza intambara mu buryo butagenzurwa.
Ariko nanone Iran ikomeje kugaragaza ko ishobora guhungabanya ubukungu bw’isi n’umutekano w’akarere n’iyo yaba ikoresheje amafaranga make ugereranyije n’ayo abanzi bayo bakoresha.
Ibi bituma intambara iri hagati ya Iran, Amerika na Israel ishobora gukomeza igihe kirekire, igahinduka intambara y’igihe kirekire y’ubushobozi n’ubukungu, aho buri ruhande rureba uwazarambirwa mbere.
Tubibutse ko mushobora gukomeza kudukurikirana ku mbuga nkoranyambaga.
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