Fresh tensions are emerging in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo after the AFC/M23 coalition signaled that future military offensives by government forces could provoke a broader response extending beyond defensive operations.
The warning came as AFC/M23 accused the Congolese army and allied armed groups of intensifying military activities throughout May 2026 in several strategic areas, including Masisi, Minembwe, Numbi, and Walikale.
In a statement released on June 1, AFC/M23 spokesperson Lawrence Kanyuka alleged that government forces have increased troop deployments, heavy weaponry, and military equipment along various frontlines, particularly in South Kivu Province.
According to Kanyuka, these deployments indicate preparations for new offensives targeting both civilian-populated areas and AFC/M23 positions.
“For this reason, AFC/M23 reiterates that any new attack launched against areas under our control will be met with a strong and proportional response,” Kanyuka stated.
The coalition went further by suggesting that its military response would not be limited to defending current positions.
“Our forces will not simply defend attacked areas. They will take the necessary measures to push this coalition of forces away from the bases from which attacks are prepared, creating a sufficient security buffer to protect civilians and their property,” he said.
The statement has been interpreted by many observers as a signal that AFC/M23 could seek to expand its military footprint if confronted with a major offensive. Rather than remaining in a purely defensive posture, the group appears prepared to push opposing forces beyond their current staging grounds.
The declaration follows recent clashes in Masisi Territory, where AFC/M23 reported repelling FARDC troops and Wazalendo fighters who had been attempting to advance toward its positions near Rubaya. The coalition claims those forces were pushed back from areas surrounding the strategic mining center.
AFC/M23 also sought to reassure residents of Rubaya, Kinigi, and neighboring communities, urging them to continue their daily activities while promising to maintain security in territories under its administration.
The Congolese military has not publicly responded to the latest accusations.
The developments come despite ongoing diplomatic efforts aimed at securing ceasefires and reducing hostilities between the warring sides. Although multiple understandings on de-escalation have been discussed through regional and international mediation processes, sporadic fighting continues to be reported across parts of North and South Kivu.
Since early last year, M23 has largely refrained from significant territorial expansion. Under pressure from mediators, the movement withdrew from several locations in South Kivu, including the city of Uvira and areas stretching toward Kamanyola in Walungu Territory.
However, Twirwaneho, which cooperates with AFC/M23, continues to control Minembwe center in Fizi Territory. The area has repeatedly been cited in reports of drone strikes and military operations in recent months.
Political and security analysts note that AFC/M23’s latest language reflects a potential shift in military doctrine. Instead of merely holding existing territory, the coalition is signaling a willingness to create broader security zones should it perceive an imminent threat.
As diplomatic negotiations continue in search of a long-term solution to the conflict in eastern Congo, the latest warning highlights the fragile nature of the current situation and raises concerns that renewed large-scale confrontations could emerge if tensions continue to escalate.
